Things fall apart - the Internet cannot hold

Stuart Corner
Monday, 24 November 2008 05:41

Business IT - Networking

Nemertes' report sees capacity problems being exacerbated by address limitations, and holds out little hope of IPv6 solving the problem any time soon, branding IPv6 "too little too late".

"Address exhaustion will occur before 2012 in the face of the accelerating growth of the number of Internet-enabled devices and of machine-machine communications," it says. Only one percent of IT decision-makers participating in Nemertes benchmark, Advanced Communications Services 2008, are deploying IPv6.

"Requirements for multi-homing- - providing multiple, separate routes to a given address - and ever-increasing mobility are placing added stress on the current Internet logical infrastructure," according to Nemertes senior analyst, Mike Jude. "In effect, the Internet could fracture back into groups of networks."

The report finds ample evidence that the trend of traffic moving off the public Internet is already well advanced. Taking Limelight as one example it notes that "Limelight Networks has been building a content delivery network that combines high-speed private links with interconnects directly to regional ISPs and aggregation points...If Limelight Networks is typical of other CDN activities, then this is indication that there is a flattening of the Internet happening. Content providers are bypassing the traditional multiple-interconnected Internet architecture by connecting directly with access providers."

Nemertes says also that it has found much evidence that "the gorillas of content," Google, Yahoo! and Microsoft are increasingly bypassing the Internet. "There is much speculation on the extent of their private networks since the companies rarely disclose details. We've found strong indications that they are investing in direct network connectivity, and interconnecting these networks themselves."

And Nemertes warns that this trend could increasingly tilt the playing field in favour of large larger and more established content providers, who have the market muscle to procure proprietary networks to ensure their content receives priority delivery.

"If Google can purchase (or build) its own backbone fibre-optic network and use its market power to negotiate favourable terms from access providers, it can ensure that future Google competitors - those without the wherewithal to purchase or negotiate massive amounts of bandwidth - can be nipped in the bud. The barrier to entry goes up. No longer is it enough to have an attractive site. Potential content providers also must supply the bandwidth to ensure users can reach their sites effectively."